Election 2006: A Women's Year?

A good Democratic year mostly means a good year for women in politics as well. In 2000, when Democrats picked up 5 seats in the Senate, there were four more women elected to the Senate Clinton, Carnahan, Cantwell, Stabenow). In fact every woman, who ran for Senate that year, won.

So as Democrats are rushing to a huge victory this year, I thought about assessing how women will do in these elections. Will there be more women in the 110th Congress after these Midterms?

I looked at the races for the Senate and the House, split in races where women are at risk of losing a seat and those where women have a chance of winning a seat. I ranked the races in order of probability of a loss/win for women, regardless of party. The female candidate is named first.

Senate:

Possible losses:

Somewhat competitive
WA-Sen.: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) vs. Mike McGavick (R)
MI-Sen.: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) vs. Mike Bouchard (R)

Possible wins:

Probable pickup
MN-Sen.: Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Mark Kennedy (R)

Tossup-race
MO-Sen.: Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Sen. Jim Talent (R)

Cantwell and Stabenow seem reasonably safe, so watch out for one or two more woman Senators. Not that much of a change...

House of Representatives:

Possible losses:

Sure loss
GA-4: Catherine Davis (R) vs. Hank Johnson (D)

Tossup-races
VA-2: Rep. Thelma Drake (R) vs. Phil Kellam (D)
CT-5: Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) vs. Chris Murphy
FL-13: Christine Jennings (D) vs. Vern Buchanan (R)
KY-3: Rep. Anne Northup (R) vs. John Yarmuth (D)

pretty endangered
WY-AL: Rep. Barbara Cubin (R) vs. Gary Trauner (D)
PA-4: Rep. Melissa Hart (R) vs. Jason Altmire (D)
NY-19: Rep. Sue Kelly (R) vs. John Hall (D)
IL-8: Rep. Melissa Bean (D) vs. David McSweeney (R)

somewhat competitive race
WA-5: Rep. Cathy McMorris (R) vs. Peter Goldmark (D)

outside chance:
WV-2: Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) vs. Mike Callaghan (D)
IN-7: Rep. Julia Carson (D) vs. Eric Dickerson (R)

Possible wins:

Sure pickup
MN-6: Patty Wetterling (D) vs. Michele Bachmann (R)
FL-11: Kathy Castor (D) vs. Eddie Adams Jr. (R)
NY-11: Yvette Clarke (D) vs. Eric Finger (R)
OK-5: Mary Fallin (R) vs. David Hunter (D)

Probable pickup
OH-13: Betty Sutton (D) vs. Craig Foltin (R)
HI-2: Mazie Hirono (D) vs. Bob Hogue (R)
AZ-8: Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs. Randy Graf (R)

Tossup-races
PA-6: Lois Murphy (D) vs. Rep. Jim Gerlach (R)
CT-4: Diane Farrell (D) vs. Rep. Chris Shays (R)
IL-6: Tammy Duckworth (D) vs. Peter Roskam (R)
WA-8: Darcy Burner (D) vs. Rep. Dave Reichert (R)
NY-20: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. Rep. John Sweeney (R)

Pretty competitive:
NV-3: Tessa Hafen (D) vs. Rep. John Porter (R)
NV-2: Jill Derby (D) vs. Dean Heller (R)
AZ-1: Ellen Simon (D) vs. Rep. Rick Renzi (R)
NJ-7: Linda Stender (D) vs. Rep. Mike Ferguson (R)
OH-18: Joy Padgett (R) vs. Zachary Space (D)

Somehow competitive:
VA-10: Judy Feder (D) vs. Rep. Frank Wolf (R)
CA-50: Francine Busby (D) vs. Rep. Biran Bilbray (R)
FL-9: Phyllis Busansky (D) vs. Gus Bilrakis (R)
KS-2: Nancy Boyda (D) vs. Rep. Jim Ryun (R)
VT-AL: Martha Rainville (R) vs. Peter Welch (D)

Outside chance:
MN-2: Coleen Rowley (D) vs. Rep. John Kline (R)
NE-1: Maxine Moul (D) vs. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R)
NH-1: Carol Shea-Porter vs. Rep. Jeb Bradley (R)
IL-17: Andrea Zinga (R) vs. Phil Hare (D)

Pickup of course means not a partisan but a "gender pickup", a Congressman being succeded by a congresswoman.
I think it's fair to say that there will be more women in the 110th Congress than in the 109th. Most vulnerable seats are Republican, and those are mostly held by men.