Psifighter37 has already made some predictions (Update here) with interesting descriptions about the Congressional Districts that decide part of the delegate count. I gave some information to the racial and economic background, which might give some insight on what to expect.
CD1: That’s southern Philadelphia, Rep. is Bob Brady (uncommitted). The district is 37% white, 46% black, 5% asian, 15% latino; education 66% high school or higher, 14% bachelor or higher. 28k $ median household income with 27% of population below poverty level.
The district has 7 delegates, it should be safe to assume that Obama will in this district.
over 50,0%: 4 delegates
over 64,3%: 5 delegates
over 78,6%: 6 delegates
CD2: That’s northern Philadelphia, Rep. is Chaka Fattah (Obama supporter). The district is 31% white, 61% black, 4% asian, 3% latino; education 74% high school or higher, 24% bachelor or higher. 30k $ median household income with 24% of population below poverty level.
The district has 9 delegates, Obama should win here as well.
over 50,0%: 5 delegates
over 61,1%: 6 delegates
over 72,2%: 7 delegates
over 83,3%: 8 delegates
CD3: That’s Erie and NW PA, Rep. is Phil English (R). The district is 94% white, 4% black, 1% latino; education 84% high school or higher, 18% bachelor or higher. 36k $ median household income with 12% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, Clinton has the advantage.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
CD4: That’s NW PA and northern suburbs of Pittsburgh, Rep. is Jason Altmire (Uncomitted). The district is 95% white, 4% black, 1% asian; education 87% high school or higher, 27% bachelor or higher. 44k $ median household income with 8% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
CD5: That’s rural northern PA, Rep. is John Peterson (R). He is retiring with a crowded primary field. Not that many committed Republicans should follow Rush Limbaugh here as they also could decide their congressman in the Republican primary. The district is 97% white, 1% black, 1% asian, 1% latino; education 82% high school or higher, 17% bachelor or higher. 33k $ median household income with 14% of population below poverty level.
The district has 4 delegates, it’s unclear whether Clinton can come up with a delegate advantage here.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 62,5%: 3 delegates
CD6: That’s the western suburbs of Philadelphia, Rep. is Jim Gerlach (R). The district is 88% white, 7% black, 2% asian, 4% latino; education 86% high school or higher, 34% bachelor or higher. 56k $ median household income with 6% of population below poverty level.
The district has 6 delegates. The Philly suburbs should be the most competitive part of PA in this primary.I don’t think it’s too probable that anybody gets a delegate advantage here.
over 50,0%: 3 delegates
over 58,3%: 4 delegates
over 75,0%: 5 delegates
CD7: That’s the western suburbs of Philadelphia, Rep. is Joe Sestak (Clinton supporter). The district is 89% white, 6% black, 4% asian, 1% latino; education 89% high school or higher, 36% bachelor or higher. 56k $ median household income with 5% of population below poverty level.
The district has 7 delegates, should be interesting to watch who will get an advantage here.
over 50%: 4 delegates
over 70%: 5 delegates
CD8: That’s the eastern suburbs of Philadelphia, Rep. is Patrick Murphy (Obama supporter). The district is 92% white, 4% black, 2% asian, 2% latino; education 88% high school or higher, 31% bachelor or higher. 59k $ median household income with 5% of population below poverty level.
The district has 7 delegates, we’ll see whether the support of the local congressman can change the results in CD7 and CD8.
over 50%: 4 delegates
over 70%: 5 delegates
CD9: That’s rural southern PA, Rep. is Bob Shuster (R). The district is 97% white, 2% black, 1% latino; education 79% high school or higher, 13% bachelor or higher. 35k $ median household income with 11% of population below poverty level.
The district has 3 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 83,3%: 3 delegates
CD10: That’s NE PA, Rep. is Chris Carney (Uncommitted). The district is 96% white, 2% black, 1% asian, 1% latino; education 82% high school or higher, 17% bachelor or higher. 36k $ median household income with 10% of population below poverty level.
The district has 4 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 62,5%: 3 delegates
over 87,5%: 4 delegates
CD11: That’s NE PA with Wilkes-Barre and Scranton, Rep. is Paul Kanjorski (Uncommitted). The district is 95% white, 3% black, 1% asian, 3% latino; education 80% high school or higher, 16% bachelor or higher. 35k $ median household income with 11% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
over 90%: 5 delegates
CD12: That’s SW PA, Rep. is John Murtha (Clinton supporter). The district is 95% white, 3% black, 1% latino; education 80% high school or higher, 14% bachelor or higher. 31k $ median household income with 14% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
over 90%: 5 delegates
CD13: That’s Philadelphia with some suburbs, Rep. is Allyson Schwartz (Clinton supporter). the district is 87% white, 6% black, 4% asian, 3% latino; education 83% high school or higher, 29% bachelor or higher. 49k $ median household income with 7% of population below poverty level.
The district has 7 delegates, another hard-fought battle in the Philly suburbs.
over 50%: 4 delegates
over 70%: 5 delegates
CD14: That’s Pittsburgh, Rep. is Mike Doyle (Uncommitted). The district is 74% white, 23% black, 2% asian, 1% latino; education 82% high school or higher, 21% bachelor or higher. 30k $ median household income with 17% of population below poverty level.
The district has 7 delegates, Obama should win here.
over 50%: 4 delegates
over 70%: 5 delegates
CD15: That’s the Lehigh Valley, Rep. is Charlie Dent (R). The district is 90% white, 3% black, 2% asian, 8% latino; education 81% high school or higher, 22% bachelor or higher. 45k $ median household income with 8% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, no clear favorite in that area.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
CD16: That’s the area around Lancaster, Rep. is Joe Pitts (R). The district is 88% white, 4% black, 1% asian, 9% latino; education 78% high school or higher, 23% bachelor or higher. 46k $ median household income with 9% of population below poverty level.
The district has 4 delegates, probably no delegate advantage from here.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 62,5%: 3 delegates
CD17: That’s the area between Harrisburg, Reading and Hazleton, Rep. is Tim Holden (Uncommitted). The district is 89% white, 8% black, 1% asian, 3% latino; education 80% high school or higher, 17% bachelor or higher. 40k $ median household income with 8% of population below poverty level.
The district has 4 delegates, it seems unclear whether Clinton can get to 3 delegates.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 62,5%: 3 delegates
CD18: That’s SW PA with the southern suburbs of Pittsburgh, Rep. is Tim Murphy (R). The district is 96% white, 2% black, 1% asian, 1% latino; education 89% high school or higher, 29% bachelor or higher. 45k $ median household income with 6% of population below poverty level.
The district has 5 delegates, Clinton should win here.
over 50%: 3 delegates
over 70%: 4 delegates
over 90%: 5 delegates
CD19: That’s southern PA, the area around York, Rep. is Todd Platts (R). The district is 93% white, 3% black, 1% asian, 3% latino; education 82% high school or higher, 21% bachelor or higher. 45k $ median household income with 7% of population below poverty level.
The district has 4 delegates, probably no delegate advantage here.
over 50,0%: 2 delegates
over 62,5%: 3 delegates
